Rare Aurora

Last night people as far south as Mississippi saw the Aurora Borealis, the Northern Lights, for the first time in almost a decade.  Last nights phenomenon has the opportunity to repeat itself tonight as the effects f the strong storm is still lingering.  Unfortunately being able to predict when tonights events will happen is not an exact science but will most likely occur between midnight and 2 AM.  Within the next year to year and a half this will become more common as the sun reaches the peak of its solar cycle during late 2012 into early 2013.

I get this question often, what exactly causes the Auroras, why does it produce color, what damage can it do?

• An Aurora starts when the Sun, a Yellow Dwarf Star, releases particles into space in an energetic release also know as a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME). As those particles bombarded our planet we are kept safe by our magnetic field.   At the the magnetic North and South Poles though, there is a gap where there is no magnetic field, allowing the high energy particles to enter our atmosphere.  As they bombard the upper levels, they interact with oxygen and nitrogen to produce a wave like light the moves across the sky usually going as low as the 42nd Parallel.  Last nights storm was so strong it was seen as far south as approximately, the 32nd Parallel.  

• As the altitude changes so does the color of the lights, Red is seen when the oxygen is above 150 miles, Green is seen when oxygen is up to 150 miles, Purple/Violet is seen with nitrogen is above 60 miles, and finally Blue is seen when nitrogen is up to 60 miles. 

•  As these hyper charged particles pass into our atmosphere it can cause many problems to modern technologies.  First is to our much depended on satellites.  From GPS, to TV, to telephones, to military technologies they all can be affected as the bombardment causes electronics in space to fail.  This would bring a virtual standstill to todays everyday life.  On the ground, if a storm is strong enough it could cause anything that is electrical and running to blackout.  This means any personal electronic, vehicles, power plants,  and substations.  The only way to fix this, is by replacing all damaged components which when it comes to power plants and substations it will be a lengthy and costly fix.

Weather Mike

Email photos of last nights and tonights phenomenon to weather.mike39@gmail.com

Hurricane Rina

As Hurricane Season wanes down this time of year it is not uncommon to see a storm or two form in the Gulf of Mexico as well as the Caribbean.  We now have Hurricane Rina out there as a weak category one with winds reaching 75 mph and gusts up to 90. This is a slow moving storm, traveling WNW at 3 mph is expect to start to make a turn to the east.  This is where the tracking becomes difficult as a pressure system moves through.  What is known is the North Gulf will most likely be sparred from  this storm.  Where this storm will land is still up in the air; what is known, with fair certainty, is that it will either hit Southwest Florida or make a full loop and hit Central America.  My personal feelings on this storm is it will reach a maximum of a Category 3 storm as it nears the Yucatán Peninsula but as it turns east the storm will weaken considerably to a Category 1.  As it reaches the West Cuban coast it will start to preform a turn south then then to the right as it will head west into an area estimated between Northern Honduras up to Southern Mexico.

Weather Mike
weather.mike39@gmail.com

Regions First Freeze of the Year

The Mountains of west North Carolina should be expecting a hard freeze tonight.  Temperatures tonight will reach well below the freezing mark.  To help save your plants and shrubs, it is recommended to give your plants a healthy dose of water before the sun sets.  The reasoning behind this is plants use the water to help in many lie sustaining activities, creating heat.  To trap the heat in, it is also recommended to cover the plants with garbage bags or sheets, this provides a layer of insulation and prevents heat escaping exponentially.  For the Upstate of South Carolina there is a 60% chance of frost developing overnight as temperatures are predicted to reach the upper 30's but mid 30's are more likely.  With a slight breeze tonight temperatures will feel like the lower 30's.

Keep warm and stay safe
Weather Mike

Northeast Winter Outlook

For my followers up in the north east I have good news for some and bad news for others.  After last years record setting season this year will be a big relief to both the citizens and the infrastructures.  From Virginia to lower New York and lower New England it will be a warmer but stormier winter this year.  A lot of precipitation this season will come in the way of a cold rain rather than the major snow storms.  With that said there can be no way to rule out a major storm at least once this very active winter.  In fact the most opportune time for a major storm will most likely be from early January until early February.  For the rest of the region it is going to be a long and bitter winter.  I expect some records to be broken in some regions as the influx of storms involved with La Niña combined with the constant bone chilling cold.  First snow should be expected around mid-November.  Total snowfalls for the northern portions will rival if not beat last years totals, for the southern portion, there will be great relief.

Weather Mike
weather.mike39@gmail.com

Southeast Winter Outlook

After having a pretty active winter with regions seeing records broken, this year is looking to be a relief to some.  This year my prediction is that it will be a wetter but milder winter this year.  Due to the weak La Niña this year there will be more precipitation but not as much in the way of snow.  Most of the region, excluding the Appalachian Mountains, can expect a lot of rain and a possible sever ice storm.  Due to the upper levels being warmer because of La Niña any snowfall will melt in the upper atmosphere.  In mid January until late February the risk turns into ice storms.  As the upper levels stay warm the lower levels will still be cold, as the rain enters the lower levels it will refreeze either on contact with a surface or as ice pellets.  Due to residual heat on roadways ice accumulation on the roads will not be a threat.  The biggest threat comes from over grown trees that can topple over onto power lines and houses.  For preparation I recommend getting a jump now and start trimming those trees back.

Weather Mike

Back from Florida

Hello My Followers

I returned from Florida today, took a little vacation to get my mind free.  Tomorrow I will be starting my week long Winter Outlook segment as well as the normal 5 day and national warnings.

Weather Mike

Fire Threats Down, Winter Storms Accumulate

Weather Alert

• Winter Storm Warnings have been posted in majority of North East and Central Nevada.  Snowfall is expected to accumulate more than 5" over the next 24-48 hours.
• Red Flag Warnings have been cancelled for most of the Central Plains

Continuing with the Winter Storm Warning,  due to mild temperatures during the day time as well as during peak hours of precipitation it is more realistic for there to be 2-3" of snow on the ground by Thursday night.  Friday night will contain the largest threat with showers earlier in the day and below freezing temperatures at night, causing widespread freezing.

Upstate, SC 5 day

• Wednesday - High of 81 with a low dropping to just above 50.  
• Thursday - High will fall just short of the 80 degree mark and sunny all day.  Overnight lows will reach an even 50 with some clouds moving in.
• Friday - Temperatures will peak at 77 degrees with more clouds moving in.  Low for Friday will be in the upper 40's with some clouds.
• Saturday - Will be a weekend warriors perfect day.  Sunny with a high in the Middle to Upper 70's with a 10% chance of rain.  Lows for Saturday will be in the lower 50's with thicker clouds moving in.
• Sunday - Minus the clouds Sunday it will be another perfect weekend.  High will be the same as Saturday with an overnight low once again in the low 50's.

Spreading Like Wild Fire

Severe Weather Alert

• I know this sounds like it is becoming repetitive but the threat of fires are serious this time of year. As predicted in yesterdays blog about the Central Plains having to watch out for Red Flag Warnings, the National Weather Service has posted these warnings for all of Nebraska and South Dakota; as well as west and central Kansas, eastern Montana, and finally eastern Colorado.  Yesterdays Winter Weather Watch for parts of California have been upgraded to Winter Storm Warnings.  Snowfall is expected to reach anywhere from 5" in some locations and up to a foot in others.

Winter Weather in October

• Many regions are starting to feel the chill of fall in the air but there are some who are seeing the bounties of winter.  Snow is predicted to fall in the upper elevations of California, Nevada, Utah, and Colorado within the next two to three days.  The only areas predicted to get over 5" are in California but this is a sign that winter is soon to come.  Next week I will be posting a Winter Outlook everyday for 5 days, each day highlighting one region.

Weekday forecast for Upstate, SC

• Today - Sunny with a high of 77 lows dropping to 45 tonight.
• Tuesday - Will be about the same with a high of 76 and a low of 48, clear with a zero percent chance of rain.
• Wednesday - Will be warmer than previous days with a high just a hair short of 80 and a low of 52.
• Thursday - Temperatures will be cooler than Wednesday with a high of 74 and a low of 50, there will be a ten percent chance of rain

Severe Weather Around the Nation

• The Central Plains states are the focus today with unseasonably warm temperatures potentially reaching the 90's.  There are a portions of Northern Texas, the Panhandle of Oklahoma, as well as Southwest Kansas under a Red Flag Warning.  The rest of the Central Plains are under a Fire Watch.
• Mammoth Lakes through Bieber California are under a Winter Storm Watch, as snowfall is to expect to reach about 4".

1st of October

Upstate Weather

• Today - will be sunny with a zero percent chance for precipitation.  The high will peak around two in the afternoon and just shy of the 70 mark. Low tonight will be about 40 degrees.
• Tomorrow - Conditions will be just like today with a zero percent chance of precipitation.  Temperature will be cooler with the high reaching the mid-60's.  Over night lows will reach the mid 40's
• Monday through Wednesday - Conditions will be optimal for outdoor activities with no rain and a gentle breeze.  Highs will be in the 70's and the lows in the upper 50's.

Around the Nation

• Northwest Region - Temperatures ranging from the mid 70's to low 80's, relatively dry with no major systems moving through.
• Southwest Region - Unseasonably warm temperatures in the 90's have increased the chances of fires through the entire region.  Look for Red Flags, for more information on Red Flags click here.
• North Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes Region - Seasonably cool temperatures with highs in the upper 60's to low 70's.  Frost Advisories out for Indiana, Michigan, and Wisconsin. 
• Southern Mississippi Valley/Gulf Region - Temperatures in the 70's with dry air abundant.  Also be weary of Red Flag Warnings.
• Appalachian Region - Highs in the 40's with gusty winds, a chance of flurries in some spots tonight. Ski season is right around the corner.
• Northeast - Temperatures are ranging from the mid 60's to upper 70's. Wide spread showers from Pennsylvania up through New England.  Virginia, Maryland, New Jersey, and Rhode Island are going to be the only states spared from serious rain, expect isolated showers in most parts.
• Southeast - Temperatures in 70's for most states with the exception of Florida, which will be in the low 80's.  Dry conditions continue and for North Florida as well as parts of Alabama and Georgia Red Flag warning are posted.

With the peak month of hurricane season behind us we are in the home stretch.  There are two storm currently active, the first Hurricane Ophella and the second Tropical Storm Philippe are both forecasted to have no threat to land.  Both storms will be swept out into the North Atlantic and will die off.

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Weather Mike

Fire Watch

With the change of the season comes a change of our weather patterns.  As the Northern Hemisphere distances itself from the sun, the change in light and temperatures help "re-mold" our weather patterns.  With the long warm days of summer almost out of sight the probability for showers, more specifically, pop up showers diminish.  Thus leaving us with a dry and nearly arid environment.  This plus an ignition source can lead to the most serious threat from now until spring... Wildfires.

As the season progresses you will hear more of the term "Red Flag Warning".  A Red Flag Warning, broken down, means conditions are at its best for wild fires.  An area already in a drought, that is facing relatively low humidity and gusty winds, are the specific locations where Red Flags are posted.  Avoiding the dangers of fires are as easy as making conscious efforts to avoid wandering ignition sources.  A carelessly thrown cigarette butt hitting a patch of dry grass can, in seconds, turn into an uncontrollable fire.  Another frequent source of ignition this time of year come from campfires.  There are two common sources with a campfire, the first being embers from wood, leaves, and brush that are burned as fuel.  As a fire naturally pops or is poked to allow more to burn, it releases embers.  If the fire is not placed in a large enough clearing or too close to brush, the wandering embers, which burn up to almost 900 degrees can easily set fire to its surroundings.  The second common ignition source is from the spent fire. People believe without flames there is no chance of fire; this is not true.  A fire can ignite as long as it has heat, fuel(wood/coals), and oxygen.  Flare up are common and can cause wildfires if not taken car of immediately.  To combat this, make sure to always douse your campfires with water to make certain there is no chance for a flare up.

With the fall season upon us there are plenty of opportunities for fun and relaxation but remember the good ole' words from Smokey the Bear, "Only you can prevent forest fires."  Any further questions can be sent to my inbox, weather.mike39@gmail.com.

Tomorrow

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Weather Mike