Tuesday, October 11, 2011

Southeast Winter Outlook

After having a pretty active winter with regions seeing records broken, this year is looking to be a relief to some.  This year my prediction is that it will be a wetter but milder winter this year.  Due to the weak La Niña this year there will be more precipitation but not as much in the way of snow.  Most of the region, excluding the Appalachian Mountains, can expect a lot of rain and a possible sever ice storm.  Due to the upper levels being warmer because of La Niña any snowfall will melt in the upper atmosphere.  In mid January until late February the risk turns into ice storms.  As the upper levels stay warm the lower levels will still be cold, as the rain enters the lower levels it will refreeze either on contact with a surface or as ice pellets.  Due to residual heat on roadways ice accumulation on the roads will not be a threat.  The biggest threat comes from over grown trees that can topple over onto power lines and houses.  For preparation I recommend getting a jump now and start trimming those trees back.

Weather Mike

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