Hurricane Rina

As Hurricane Season wanes down this time of year it is not uncommon to see a storm or two form in the Gulf of Mexico as well as the Caribbean.  We now have Hurricane Rina out there as a weak category one with winds reaching 75 mph and gusts up to 90. This is a slow moving storm, traveling WNW at 3 mph is expect to start to make a turn to the east.  This is where the tracking becomes difficult as a pressure system moves through.  What is known is the North Gulf will most likely be sparred from  this storm.  Where this storm will land is still up in the air; what is known, with fair certainty, is that it will either hit Southwest Florida or make a full loop and hit Central America.  My personal feelings on this storm is it will reach a maximum of a Category 3 storm as it nears the Yucatán Peninsula but as it turns east the storm will weaken considerably to a Category 1.  As it reaches the West Cuban coast it will start to preform a turn south then then to the right as it will head west into an area estimated between Northern Honduras up to Southern Mexico.

Weather Mike
weather.mike39@gmail.com

Regions First Freeze of the Year

The Mountains of west North Carolina should be expecting a hard freeze tonight.  Temperatures tonight will reach well below the freezing mark.  To help save your plants and shrubs, it is recommended to give your plants a healthy dose of water before the sun sets.  The reasoning behind this is plants use the water to help in many lie sustaining activities, creating heat.  To trap the heat in, it is also recommended to cover the plants with garbage bags or sheets, this provides a layer of insulation and prevents heat escaping exponentially.  For the Upstate of South Carolina there is a 60% chance of frost developing overnight as temperatures are predicted to reach the upper 30's but mid 30's are more likely.  With a slight breeze tonight temperatures will feel like the lower 30's.

Keep warm and stay safe
Weather Mike

Northeast Winter Outlook

For my followers up in the north east I have good news for some and bad news for others.  After last years record setting season this year will be a big relief to both the citizens and the infrastructures.  From Virginia to lower New York and lower New England it will be a warmer but stormier winter this year.  A lot of precipitation this season will come in the way of a cold rain rather than the major snow storms.  With that said there can be no way to rule out a major storm at least once this very active winter.  In fact the most opportune time for a major storm will most likely be from early January until early February.  For the rest of the region it is going to be a long and bitter winter.  I expect some records to be broken in some regions as the influx of storms involved with La Niña combined with the constant bone chilling cold.  First snow should be expected around mid-November.  Total snowfalls for the northern portions will rival if not beat last years totals, for the southern portion, there will be great relief.

Weather Mike
weather.mike39@gmail.com

Southeast Winter Outlook

After having a pretty active winter with regions seeing records broken, this year is looking to be a relief to some.  This year my prediction is that it will be a wetter but milder winter this year.  Due to the weak La Niña this year there will be more precipitation but not as much in the way of snow.  Most of the region, excluding the Appalachian Mountains, can expect a lot of rain and a possible sever ice storm.  Due to the upper levels being warmer because of La Niña any snowfall will melt in the upper atmosphere.  In mid January until late February the risk turns into ice storms.  As the upper levels stay warm the lower levels will still be cold, as the rain enters the lower levels it will refreeze either on contact with a surface or as ice pellets.  Due to residual heat on roadways ice accumulation on the roads will not be a threat.  The biggest threat comes from over grown trees that can topple over onto power lines and houses.  For preparation I recommend getting a jump now and start trimming those trees back.

Weather Mike

Back from Florida

Hello My Followers

I returned from Florida today, took a little vacation to get my mind free.  Tomorrow I will be starting my week long Winter Outlook segment as well as the normal 5 day and national warnings.

Weather Mike

Fire Threats Down, Winter Storms Accumulate

Weather Alert

• Winter Storm Warnings have been posted in majority of North East and Central Nevada.  Snowfall is expected to accumulate more than 5" over the next 24-48 hours.
• Red Flag Warnings have been cancelled for most of the Central Plains

Continuing with the Winter Storm Warning,  due to mild temperatures during the day time as well as during peak hours of precipitation it is more realistic for there to be 2-3" of snow on the ground by Thursday night.  Friday night will contain the largest threat with showers earlier in the day and below freezing temperatures at night, causing widespread freezing.

Upstate, SC 5 day

• Wednesday - High of 81 with a low dropping to just above 50.  
• Thursday - High will fall just short of the 80 degree mark and sunny all day.  Overnight lows will reach an even 50 with some clouds moving in.
• Friday - Temperatures will peak at 77 degrees with more clouds moving in.  Low for Friday will be in the upper 40's with some clouds.
• Saturday - Will be a weekend warriors perfect day.  Sunny with a high in the Middle to Upper 70's with a 10% chance of rain.  Lows for Saturday will be in the lower 50's with thicker clouds moving in.
• Sunday - Minus the clouds Sunday it will be another perfect weekend.  High will be the same as Saturday with an overnight low once again in the low 50's.

Spreading Like Wild Fire

Severe Weather Alert

• I know this sounds like it is becoming repetitive but the threat of fires are serious this time of year. As predicted in yesterdays blog about the Central Plains having to watch out for Red Flag Warnings, the National Weather Service has posted these warnings for all of Nebraska and South Dakota; as well as west and central Kansas, eastern Montana, and finally eastern Colorado.  Yesterdays Winter Weather Watch for parts of California have been upgraded to Winter Storm Warnings.  Snowfall is expected to reach anywhere from 5" in some locations and up to a foot in others.

Winter Weather in October

• Many regions are starting to feel the chill of fall in the air but there are some who are seeing the bounties of winter.  Snow is predicted to fall in the upper elevations of California, Nevada, Utah, and Colorado within the next two to three days.  The only areas predicted to get over 5" are in California but this is a sign that winter is soon to come.  Next week I will be posting a Winter Outlook everyday for 5 days, each day highlighting one region.